Ngā Pūrongo Ahumahi: Ko te takai matatau te mea nui o te atamira

Kei te tere haere ngā panonitanga o te umanga haurua-ira, ā, kāore te takai matatau e waiho hei whakaaro noa iho. I kī te kaitātari rongonui a Lu Xingzhi, mēnā ko ngā tukanga matatau te pokapū mana o te wā silicon, ko te takai matatau kei te huri hei pā kaha mō te emepaea hangarau e whai ake nei.

I roto i tētahi pou i runga i a Pukamata, i kī a Lu tekau tau ki muri, i hē te māramatanga mō tēnei ara, ā, i warewarehia hoki. Heoi, i tēnei rā, kua huri puku mai i te "Mahere B ehara i te mea matua" ki te "ara matua Mahere A."

Ehara i te mea tūpono noa te putanga mai o ngā tākai matatau hei pā kaha mō te emepaea hangarau e whai ake nei; he hua tēnei nō ngā mana akiaki e toru.

Ko te tino kaupapa matua ko te tipu tere o te mana rorohiko, engari kua puhoi te ahunga whakamua o ngā tukanga. Me tapahi, me whakarārangi, me whirihora anō ngā maramara. I kī a Lu, ahakoa ka taea e koe te whakatutuki i te 5nm, ehara i te mea ka taea e koe te whakauru i te 20 ngā wā o te mana rorohiko. Ko ngā rohe o ngā whakaahua-kōpare ka whakawhāiti i te horahanga o ngā maramara, ā, ko ngā Chiplet anake ka taea te karo i tēnei arai, e kitea ana me te Blackwell a Nvidia.

Ko te tuarua o ngā kaha akiaki ko ngā tono kanorau; kāore ngā maramara e rite ana ki te katoa. Kei te neke te hoahoa pūnaha ki te whakarerekētanga. I kī a Lu kua mutu te wā o te maramara kotahi e whakahaere ana i ngā tono katoa. Te whakangungu AI, te whakatau motuhake, te rorohiko taha, ngā taputapu AR—me whakamahi ia tono i ngā huinga rerekē o te silicon. Ko te takai matatau me ngā Chiplets ka tukuna he otinga taurite mō te ngāwari me te whai hua o te hoahoa.

Ko te tuatoru o ngā āhuatanga matua ko te pikinga o te utu o te kawe raraunga, ā, ko te whakapaunga pūngao te mea nui rawa atu. I roto i ngā maramara AI, he maha ngā wā ka nui ake te pūngao e pau ana mō te whakawhiti raraunga i te pūngao tatau. Kua noho te tawhiti i roto i ngā takai tuku iho hei arai mō te mahi. Ka tuhia anōtia e te takai matatau tēnei ariā: mā te whakatata atu i ngā raraunga ka taea te haere atu ki tua atu.

Tākai Matatau: Te Tipu Whakamiharo

E ai ki tētahi pūrongo i tukuna e te kamupene kōrero a Yole Group i te marama o Hūrae o te tau kua hipa, i runga i ngā au o te HPC me te whakaputa AI, e matapaetia ana ka eke te umanga tākai matatau ki tētahi tere tipu ā-tau (CAGR) o te 12.9% i roto i ngā tau e ono e whai ake nei. Ina koa, e matapaetia ana ka piki te moni whiwhi whānui o te umanga mai i te $39.2 piriona i te tau 2023 ki te $81.1 piriona i te tau 2029 (tata ki te 589.73 piriona RMB).

Kei te nui te haumi a ngā kamupene nunui o te ahumahi, tae atu ki a TSMC, Intel, Samsung, ASE, Amkor, me JCET, ki te kaha tākai matatau teitei, me te whakaaro he $11.5 piriona te haumitanga ki roto i ā rātou pakihi tākai matatau i te tau 2024.

Ko te ngaru o te matauranga horihori, e kore e kore ka kawea mai e te ngaru o te matauranga horihori he kaha hou ki te umanga takai matatau. Mā te whanaketanga o te hangarau takai matatau ka taea hoki te tautoko i te tipu o ngā momo mara, tae atu ki ngā hikohiko kaihoko, te rorohiko mahi-teitei, te rokiroki raraunga, ngā hikohiko motuka, me ngā whakawhitiwhiti kōrero.

E ai ki ngā tatauranga a te kamupene, ko te moni whiwhi mai i ngā takai matatau i te hauwhā tuatahi o te tau 2024 i eke ki te $10.2 piriona (tata ki te 74.17 piriona RMB), e whakaatu ana i te hekenga 8.1% i ia hauwhā, ko te nuinga nā ngā āhuatanga o te wā. Heoi, he teitei ake tonu tēnei whika i te wā kotahi i te tau 2023. I te hauwhā tuarua o te tau 2024, e matapaetia ana ka hoki anō te moni whiwhi mai i ngā takai matatau mā te 4.6%, ka eke ki te $10.7 piriona (tata ki te 77.81 piriona RMB).