Ko te kanorau o te tono me te putanga o ngā takai matatau puta noa i ngā mākete rerekē kei te akiaki i te rahi o tōna mākete mai i te $38 piriona ki te $79 piriona i te tau 2030. Nā ngā tono me ngā wero maha i whakakahangia ai tēnei tipu, engari kei te piki tonu tonu. Mā tēnei whānuitanga o te mahi ka taea e ngā takai matatau te pupuri i te auahatanga me te urutau tonu, me te whakatutuki i ngā hiahia motuhake o ngā mākete rerekē e pā ana ki te putanga, ngā whakaritenga hangarau, me ngā utu hoko toharite.
Heoi anō, he tūponotanga anō hoki tēnei ngāwari ki te umanga tākai matatau ina pāngia ētahi mākete e ngā hekenga, e ngā piki me ngā heke. I te tau 2024, ka whai hua ngā tākai matatau mai i te tipu tere o te mākete pokapū raraunga, engari he puhoi te whakaoranga o ngā mākete papatipu pērā i te waea pūkoro.
Ko te mekameka tuku tākai matatau tētahi o ngā rāngai iti tino hihiri i roto i te mekameka tuku haurua-ā-rangi o te ao. Nā te whai wāhi mai o ngā tauira pakihi maha i tua atu i te OSAT tuku iho (Outsourced Semiconductor Assembly and Test), te hiranga rautaki ā-ao o te umanga, me tōna tūranga nui i roto i ngā hua mahi-teitei te take o tēnei.
Ia tau ka kawea mai ōna ake herenga e huri ana i te āhua o te mekameka tuku tākai matatau. I te tau 2024, he maha ngā āhuatanga matua e pā ana ki tēnei panonitanga: ngā herenga kaha, ngā wero hua, ngā rauemi me ngā taputapu hou, ngā whakaritenga whakapaunga whakapaipai, ngā ture me ngā kaupapa ā-rohe, te tono nui i roto i ngā mākete motuhake, ngā paerewa e whanake ana, ngā tāngata hou e tomo mai ana, me ngā piki me ngā heke o ngā rauemi mata.
He maha ngā hononga hou kua puta ake hei mahi tahi me te tere ki te aro atu ki ngā wero o te mekameka tuku. Kei te raihanahia ngā hangarau tākai matatau matua ki ētahi atu kaiuru hei tautoko i te whakawhiti maeneene ki ngā tauira pakihi hou, me te aro atu ki ngā herenga kaha. Kei te kaha haere te whakanui i te paerewa maramara hei whakatairanga i ngā tono maramara whānui, te tūhura i ngā mākete hou, me te whakaiti i ngā taumahatanga haumi takitahi. I te tau 2024, ka tīmata ngā iwi hou, ngā kamupene, ngā whare, me ngā raina whakamātautau ki te whakapau kaha ki te tākai matatau—he ia ka haere tonu ki te tau 2025.
Kāore anō kia eke te tākai matatau ki te taumata hangarau. I waenganui i te tau 2024 me te tau 2025, kua eke te tākai matatau ki ngā putanga hou o ngā hangarau me ngā tūāpapa AP o nāianei, ā, kua whānui haere te whānuitanga o ngā hangarau ki te whakauru i ngā putanga hou pakari o ngā hangarau me ngā tūāpapa AP o nāianei, pērā i te EMIB me te Foveros o te whakatupuranga hou a Intel. Kei te arohia hoki e te umanga te tākai o ngā pūnaha CPO (Chip-on-Package Optical Devices), me ngā hangarau hou e whakawhanakehia ana hei kukume i ngā kiritaki me te whakawhānui ake i te putanga.
Ko ngā papa hiko whakauru matatau e tohu ana i tētahi atu ahumahi e pā tata ana, e tiritiri ana i ngā mahere ara, ngā mātāpono hoahoa mahi tahi, me ngā whakaritenga taputapu me ngā takai matatau.
Haunga ēnei hangarau matua, he maha ngā hangarau "pūkaha kore e kitea" e akiaki ana i te kanorau me te auahatanga o ngā takai matatau: ngā otinga tuku hiko, ngā hangarau whakauru, te whakahaere wera, ngā rauemi hou (pēnei i te karāhe me ngā mea rauropi o te whakatupuranga e whai ake nei), ngā hononga matatau, me ngā whakatakotoranga taputapu/taputapu hou. Mai i ngā hikohiko pūkoro me te kaihoko ki te matauranga horihori me ngā pokapū raraunga, kei te whakarerekē te takai matatau i ana hangarau kia tutuki ai ngā hiahia o ia mākete, kia taea ai e ana hua o te whakatupuranga e whai ake nei te whakatutuki i ngā hiahia o te mākete.
E matapaetia ana ka eke te mākete tākai kounga teitei ki te $8 piriona i te tau 2024, me ngā tumanakohanga ka neke atu i te $28 piriona i te tau 2030, e whakaata ana i te tere tipu ā-tau (CAGR) o te 23% mai i te tau 2024 ki te 2030. Mō ngā mākete mutunga, ko te mākete tākai mahi-teitei nui rawa atu ko "ngā whakawhitiwhiti kōrero me ngā hanganga," i whakaputa i te neke atu i te 67% o ngā moni whiwhi i te tau 2024. Kei muri tata mai ko te "mākete waea pūkoro me te kaihoko," koinei te mākete tino tere te tipu me te CAGR o te 50%.
Mō ngā waeine tākai, e matapaetia ana ka kitea he CAGR o te 33% mai i te tau 2024 ki te 2030, ka piki ake mai i te 1 piriona waeine i te tau 2024 ki te neke atu i te 5 piriona waeine i te tau 2030. Nā te tono nui mō ngā tākai kounga teitei tēnei tipu nui, ā, he nui ake te utu hoko toharite ki te whakataurite ki ngā tākai iti ake te matatau, nā te nekehanga o te uara mai i te pito mua ki te pito muri nā ngā tūāpapa 2.5D me te 3D.
Ko te mahara whakarārangi 3D (HBM, 3DS, 3D NAND, me te CBA DRAM) te mea tino nui, e matapaetia ana ka eke ki te 70% o te wahanga mākete i te tau 2029. Ko ngā tūāpapa tino tere tipu ko te CBA DRAM, te 3D SoC, ngā kaiwhakauru Si hohe, ngā whakarārangi NAND 3D, me ngā piriti Si kua tāmau.
Kei te piki haere ngā arai urunga ki te mekameka tuku tākai teitei, me ngā whare hanga wafer nui me ngā IDM e whakararuraru ana i te mara tākai matatau me ō rātou āheinga o mua. Nā te whakamahi i te hangarau here ranu ka uaua ake te āhuatanga mō ngā kaihoko OSAT, nā te mea ko te hunga anake he āheinga hanga wafer me te nui o ngā rauemi ka taea te tu atu i ngā mate hua nui me ngā haumitanga nui.
I te tau 2024, ko ngā kaihanga mahara e tohuhia ana e Yangtze Memory Technologies, Samsung, SK Hynix, me Micron ka kaha ake, ka pupuri i te 54% o te mākete tākai teitei, nā te mea he pai ake te mahi a te mahara whakarārangi 3D i ētahi atu tūāpapa i runga i te moni whiwhi, te putanga wae, me te hua wafer. Inaa, ko te nui o te hoko o te tākai mahara he nui ake i te tākai arorau. Ko te TSMC te kaiārahi me te 35% o te mākete, ā, e whai tata ana ko Yangtze Memory Technologies me te 20% o te mākete katoa. Ko ngā tāngata hou pēnei i a Kioxia, Micron, SK Hynix, me Samsung e matapaetia ana ka tere te uru atu ki te mākete 3D NAND, ka hopu i te wāhanga mākete. Ko Samsung te tuatoru me te 16% o te wāhanga, ā, e whai ake nei ko SK Hynix (13%) me Micron (5%). I te mea kei te whanake tonu te mahara whakarārangi 3D me te whakarewatanga o ngā hua hou, e matapaetia ana ka tipu pai ngā wāhanga mākete o ēnei kaihanga. E whai tata ana a Intel me te 6%.
Kei te whai wāhi tonu ngā kaihanga OSAT matua pērā i a Advanced Semiconductor Manufacturing (ASE), Siliconware Precision Industries (SPIL), JCET, Amkor, me TF ki ngā mahi tākai whakamutunga me ngā mahi whakamātautau. Kei te ngana rātou ki te hopu i te wāhi mākete mā te whakamahi i ngā otinga tākai kounga teitei e hangai ana ki te ultra-high-definition fan-out (UHD FO) me ngā taputapu whakauru pokepokea ai. Ko tētahi atu āhuatanga matua ko tā rātou mahi tahi me ngā whare hanga taputapu matua me ngā kaihanga taputapu whakauru (IDM) hei whakarite i te whai wāhi ki ēnei mahi.
I ēnei rā, ko te whakatinanatanga o ngā takai kounga teitei e whakawhirinaki ana ki ngā hangarau o mua (FE), ā, ko te hononga ranu te momo hou e puta ake ana. Mā te mahi tahi me AMAT, ka whai wāhi nui a BESI i roto i tēnei momo hou, e tuku taputapu ana ki ngā kamupene nunui pēnei i a TSMC, Intel, me Samsung, e whakataetae ana mō te mana o te mākete. Ko ētahi atu kaiwhakarato taputapu, pēnei i a ASMPT, EVG, SET, me Suiss MicroTech, tae atu ki a Shibaura me TEL, he wāhanga nui anō hoki o te mekameka tuku.
Ko tētahi ia o ngā hangarau nui puta noa i ngā papaaho tākai mahi-teitei katoa, ahakoa te momo, ko te whakaiti i te hononga honohono—he ia e pā ana ki ngā vias through-silicon (TSV), ngā TMV, ngā microbumps, tae noa ki te hononga ranu, ko te mea whakamutunga kua puta ko te otinga tino auaha. Hei tāpiri, e matapaetia ana hoki ka heke te diameters via me te matotoru o te wafer.
He mea nui tēnei whanaketanga hangarau mō te whakauru i ngā maramara me ngā maramara honohono matatini ake hei tautoko i te tukatuka me te tuku raraunga tere ake, me te whakarite hoki kia iti ake te whakapaunga hiko me ngā ngaronga, ā, hei mutunga, ka taea ai te whakauru kiato teitei ake me te whānui o te raraunga mō ngā whakatupuranga hua o muri mai.
Ko te hononga ranu 3D SoC te āhua nei he pou hangarau matua mō ngā takai matatau o te whakatupuranga e whai ake nei, nā te mea ka taea e ia ngā papa hononga iti ake me te whakanui ake i te horahanga mata whānui o te SoC. Mā tēnei ka taea ngā mea pēnei i te whakarārangi i ngā maramara mai i te mate SoC kua wehea, ā, ka taea ai te takai whakauru kanorau. Kua noho a TSMC, me tana hangarau 3D Fabric, hei kaiārahi i roto i te takai 3D SoIC e whakamahi ana i te hononga ranu. Hei tāpiri, e tumanakohia ana ka tīmata te whakaurunga maramara-ki-te-wafer me te iti o ngā puranga DRAM 16-apa HBM4E.
Ko te maramara me te whakaurunga kanorau tētahi atu au matua e akiaki ana i te tango i te takai HEP, me ngā hua e wātea ana i te mākete e whakamahi ana i tēnei huarahi. Hei tauira, ko te Sapphire Rapids a Intel e whakamahi ana i te EMIB, ko te Ponte Vecchio e whakamahi ana i te Co-EMIB, ā, ko te Meteor Lake e whakamahi ana i te Foveros. Ko te AMD tētahi atu kaihoko nui kua tango i tēnei huarahi hangarau i roto i āna hua, pērā i āna tukatuka Ryzen me te EPYC o te whakatupuranga tuatoru, tae atu ki te hoahoa maramara 3D i roto i te MI300.
E tūmanakohia ana hoki ka whakamahia e Nvidia tēnei hoahoa maramara i roto i tana raupapa Blackwell o te whakatupuranga e whai ake nei. E ai ki ngā kaihoko nui pērā i a Intel, AMD, me Nvidia kua pānuitia kētia, e tūmanakohia ana ka wātea mai ētahi atu mōkihi e whakauru ana i te mate wehewehe, i te mate tārua rānei i te tau e tū mai nei. Hei tāpiri, e tūmanakohia ana ka whakamahia tēnei huarahi i roto i ngā tono ADAS teitei i ngā tau e haere ake nei.
Ko te ia whānui ko te whakauru atu i ngā tūāpapa 2.5D me te 3D ki roto i te kete kotahi, e kīia ana e ētahi o te umanga he takai 3.5D. Nō reira, e tumanakohia ana kia puta mai ngā kete e whakauru ana i ngā maramara SoC 3D, ngā hononga 2.5D, ngā piriti silicon kua whakauruhia, me ngā whatu kua tākaihia tahi. Kei te tata mai ngā tūāpapa takai 2.5D me te 3D hou, ka nui ake te uaua o te takai HEP.
Wā tuku: 11 o Ākuhata 2025