Ngā Pūrongo Ahumahi: Kua eke te hokonga o ngā taputapu maramara ki te taumata teitei rawa atu o te ao!

E tohu ana a SEMI ko te pūtake matua o te tipu tonu o ngā hoko taputapu maramara ko ngā haumitanga ki ngā hangarau arorau matatau, mahara, me te takai matatau e pā ana ki te matauranga horihori.

I kī te Tumu Whakahaere o SEMI, a Ajit Manocha, "He kaha ngā hoko taputapu maramara o te ao, ā, e matapaetia ana ka piki ake ngā tukanga o mua me muri mō te toru o ngā tau karapīpiti, ā, e matapaetia ana ka neke atu ngā hoko i te $150 piriona mō te wā tuatahi i te tau 2027. Whai muri i tā mātou matapae waenga-tau i tukuna i te marama o Hūrae, kua whakapiki ake mātou i tā mātou matapae hoko taputapu maramara nā te mea he nui ake te haumitanga kaha atu i te mea i tumanakohia ki te tautoko i te tono AI."

E matapaetia ana e SEMI ka piki ake ngā hoko taputapu hanga mua o te ao (taputapu hanga wafer; WFE) mā te 11.0% i ia tau ki te $115.7 piriona i te tau 2025, he pikinga ake i te matapae o waenganui o te tau o te $110.8 piriona, ā, ka nui ake i te matapae o te tau 2024 o te $104 piriona, ka whakatakoto i tētahi rekoata hou. Ko te whakahoutanga ake o te matapae hoko WFE e whakaata ana i te pikinga ohorere o te haumi DRAM me te HBM i akiakihia e te tono rorohiko AI, me te takoha nui mai i te whakawhānui tonu o te kaha o Haina. I akiakihia e te pikinga o te tono mō te arorau me te mahara matatau, e matapaetia ana ka piki ake ngā hoko WFE o te ao mā te 9.0% i te tau 2026, ā, ka piki ake anō mā te 7.3% i te tau 2027, ka eke ki te $135.2 piriona.

E whakaatu ana a SEMI ko Haina, Taiwana, me Korea ki te Tonga e matapaetia ana ka noho tonu hei ngā kaihoko taputapu maramara matua e toru i te tau 2027. I roto i te wā matapae (tae noa ki te tau 2027), e matapaetia ana ka haere tonu a Haina ki te haumi ki ngā tukanga kua pakeke me ngā pona matatau motuhake hei pupuri i tōna tūranga ārahi; heoi, e matapaetia ana ka puhoi te tipu i muri i te tau 2026, me te heke haere o ngā hoko. I Taiwana, e matapaetia ana ka haere tonu te haumi nui ki te whakawhānui i te kaha whakaputa matatau tae noa ki te tau 2025. I Korea ki te Tonga, ka tautokohia ngā hoko taputapu e ngā haumitanga nui ki ngā hangarau mahara matatau, tae atu ki te HBM.

I ētahi atu rohe, e matapaetia ana ka piki ake te haumitanga i te tau 2026 me te tau 2027 nā runga i ngā whakatenatena a te kāwanatanga, ngā mahi ā-rohe, me te pikinga ake o te kaha whakaputa mō ngā hua motuhake.

I tukuna e te Japan Electronics and Information Technology Industries Association (JEITA) tētahi pūrongo i te 2 o Hakihea e kī ana, e ai ki te matapae hou mai i te World Semiconductor Trade System (WSTS), ko te haumi ki ngā pokapū raraunga matauranga horihori te mea matua hei akiaki, hei akiaki i te tipu tere tonu o te tono mō te mahara, ngā GPU, me ētahi atu maramara arorau. Nō reira, e matapaetia ana ka piki ake ngā hoko semiconductor o te ao mā te 26.3% ia tau, kia eke ki te $975.46 piriona i te tau 2026, kia tata ki te tohu $1 trillion, ā, kia eke ki te taumata teitei hou mō te toru o ngā tau karapīpiti.

 

Kei te piki haere tonu ngā hoko o ngā taputapu haurua-ā-ira o Hapani ki ngā taumata teitei.

Kei te kaha tonu ngā hoko o ngā taputapu hanga haurua-ira i Hapani, ā, neke atu i te 400 piriona yen ngā hoko o Oketopa 2025 mō te 12 marama karapīpiti, ka whakatakoto i tētahi rekoata hou mō taua wā anō. Nā tēnei, i piki ake ngā hea o ngā kamupene taputapu maramara Hapani i tēnei rā.

E ai ki a Yahoo Finance, i te 9:20 i te ata i te wā o Taipei i te 27 o ngā rā, i piki ake ngā hea o Tokyo Electron (TEL) mā te 2.60%, i piki ake ngā hea o Advantest (he kaihanga taputapu whakamātautau) mā te 4.34%, ā, i piki ake ngā hea o Kokosai (he kaihanga taputapu whakatakoto kiriata angiangi) mā te 5.16%.

I whakaatuhia e ngā raraunga i tukuna e te Semiconductor Equipment Association o Hapani (SEAJ) i te 26 o Oketopa 2025, ko ngā hoko taputapu semiconductor o Hapani (tae atu ki ngā kaweake, he toharite neke 3-marama) i eke ki te 413.876 piriona yen i te Oketopa 2025, he pikinga 7.3% i whakaritea ki te wā kotahi o te tau kua hipa, ko te 22 o ngā marama karapīpiti o te tipu. Kua neke atu ngā hoko ia marama i te 300 piriona yen mō ngā marama karapīpiti 24 me te 400 piriona yen mō ngā marama 12 karapīpiti, ka whakatakoto i tētahi rekoata hou mō taua marama.

I heke ngā hoko mā te 2.5% ki te whakataurite ki te marama o mua (Hepetema 2025), koinei te hekenga tuarua i roto i ngā marama e toru.

 

Mai i Hānuere ki Oketopa 2025, i eke te hoko o ngā taputapu haurua-ira ki te 4.214 trillion yen, he pikinga 17.5% ki te whakataurite ki te wā kotahi o te tau kua hipa, he nui atu i te rekoata hītori o te 3.586 trillion yen i whakatakotoria i te tau 2024.

Kua eke te wāhanga mākete o Hapani mō ngā taputapu haurua-ira (mā te moni whiwhi hoko) ki te 30%, koia te mākete tuarua nui rawa atu o te ao i muri i te Hononga o Amerika.

I te 31 o Oketopa, i pānuitia e Tokyo Telecom (TEL) āna hua pūtea, me te kī, nā te pai ake o te mahi i tērā i tumanakohia, kua whakapiki ake te kamupene i tana whāinga moni whakakotahi mō te tau pūtea 2025 (Paenga-whāwhā 2025 ki Maehe 2026) mai i te ¥2.35 trillion i te marama o Hūrae ki te ¥2.38 trillion. Kua whakapiki ake hoki te whāinga hua whakahaere whakakotahi mai i te ¥570 piriona ki te ¥586 piriona, me te whāinga hua kupenga whakakotahi mai i te ¥444 piriona ki te ¥488 piriona.

I te 3 o Hūrae, i tukuna e SEAJ tētahi pūrongo matapae e tohu ana nā te kaha o te tono mō ngā GPU me ngā HBM mai i ngā tūmau AI, ka tīmata te TSMC, te kamupene whakarewa hiko matatau o Taiwan, ki te hanga papatipu o ngā maramara 2nm, ka piki ake te haumi ki te hangarau 2nm. Hei tāpiri, kei te tipu haere hoki te haumi a Kōrea ki te Tonga ki te DRAM/HBM. Nō reira, kua whakahoutia te matapae mō ngā hoko taputapu hiko Hapanihi (e pā ana ki ngā hoko a ngā kamupene Hapanihi i roto i te motu me te ao) i te tau pūtea 2025 (Paenga-whāwhā 2025 ki Maehe 2026) mai i te matapae o mua o te 4.659 trillion yen ki te 4.8634 trillion yen, he pikinga 2.0% ki te whakataurite ki te tau pūtea 2024, ā, e matapaetia ana ka eke ki te taumata teitei mō te rua o ngā tau karapīpiti.